TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-13

Morning Snapshot

• Iran said there had been no progress on an interim peace deal with the United States, with Reuters reporting the two sides remain at odds over efforts to reach a permanent end to the war in the Middle East.
• The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts and said shipping disruptions in the Middle East could reduce global oil supply by 4.3 million barrels per day.
• Oil prices held firm as concerns over supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz outweighed a sharp rise in US crude inventories.
• A Reuters poll found that 57 of 69 economists expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September.
• Reports cited by MUFG said Japan's government supports a near-term Bank of Japan rate increase, with markets already pricing in a hike by October and around 19 basis points of tightening by September.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said cash rate increases are achieving their intended impact.

Overview

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained a central theme in the reporting window, with Iran saying there had been no progress on an interim peace arrangement with the United States and energy-market coverage highlighting continued concern over shipping and supply disruptions linked to the region. Those developments were accompanied by updated projections from the International Energy Agency, which lowered its 2026 oil supply and demand forecasts.

Central bank policy expectations also featured prominently across major economies. A Reuters poll showed economists broadly expect the European Central Bank to raise rates again in September, reports cited by MUFG pointed to growing expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan hike, and Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said Australian rate increases are working as intended.

Taken together, the reporting period was defined by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, tighter-policy expectations across several major central banks, and renewed attention on the outlook for global energy supply.

Geopolitical Developments

Iran says no progress has been made on interim peace deal with the United States

Iran said there had been no progress on an interim peace deal with the United States, according to Reuters. The report said the two countries remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Middle East, underscoring continued diplomatic deadlock during the reporting period.

Energy & Commodities

IEA lowers 2026 oil outlook amid Middle East shipping disruptions

The International Energy Agency cut its global oil supply and demand forecasts for 2026 amid shipping disruptions in the Middle East. The article said the agency forecast a 4.3 million barrel-per-day drop in global oil supply, linking the revision to disruption affecting regional shipping routes.

Oil holds firm as Strait of Hormuz concerns offset large US inventory build

West Texas Intermediate traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as markets weighed a sharp rise in US crude inventories against persistent supply risks in the Middle East. The article said WTI was trading around $82.20 per barrel, near a one-and-a-half-week high, with concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz outweighing the inventory increase.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Reuters poll shows economists expect ECB rate increase in September

A Reuters poll found that 57 of 69 economists expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September. The report reflects a broad consensus among surveyed economists on the next expected ECB move within the current policy cycle.

Reports point to near-term Bank of Japan hike expectations

MUFG cited a Bloomberg report saying Prime Minister Takaichi's government supports a near-term Bank of Japan rate increase, with the next move likely in September or October according to people familiar with the matter. The article also said market participants had already fully priced in a hike by October and around 19 basis points of tightening by September, while Kyodo reported that recent joint foreign-exchange intervention was enabled by Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish comments at the 31 July policy meeting, where he said the Bank of Japan would accelerate the pace of rate hikes if necessary.

RBA's Kent says Australian rate increases are having the intended effect

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said on Thursday that cash rate hikes are achieving their intended impact. The report presented his remarks as confirmation that previous monetary tightening is producing the expected effect in the Australian economy.

Closing Summary

The reporting window was led by continued diplomatic deadlock between the United States and Iran, renewed concern over Middle East energy disruptions, and a series of central-bank developments spanning the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the RBA. Energy supply risks and policy tightening expectations remained the dominant factual themes across global markets coverage.