TMGM Daily Market Breakfast: 2026-08-13

Morning Snapshot

• Japan and the United States carried out a rare coordinated foreign-exchange intervention, the first joint action since 2011, as authorities sought to curb yen weakness and ease pressure on other Asian currencies.
• The International Energy Agency said shipping disruptions in the Middle East led it to cut its 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts, including a projected 4.3 million barrels-per-day drop in supply.
• Iran said there had been no progress toward an interim peace deal with the United States, underscoring a continuing stalemate over efforts to end the Middle East war.
• Oil market coverage during the period highlighted persistent Strait of Hormuz supply risks, a reported 9.1 million-barrel rise in US crude inventories and continuing diplomatic efforts linked to the disruption.
• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said the central bank's cash-rate increases were achieving their intended impact.
• An article in the reporting window said the US Bureau of Labor Statistics was due to publish July consumer price index data on Wednesday, with the report described as a key inflation release.

Overview

The reporting period was dominated by developments with cross-market implications in Asia, energy and geopolitics. A rare coordinated foreign-exchange intervention by Japan and the United States stood out as a major policy action, while energy-market reporting focused on Middle East shipping disruptions and the Strait of Hormuz, where supply concerns remained central.

The International Energy Agency added to the significance of the energy story by revising down its 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts, citing disruption in the region. At the same time, Reuters-reported comments from Iran indicated no progress on an interim peace arrangement with the United States, leaving the broader conflict unresolved.

Elsewhere, central-bank and macroeconomic coverage was more limited but still notable. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said earlier rate increases were having the intended effect, and one article highlighted the scheduled release of US July CPI data as an important inflation event during the period.

Macroeconomics & Central Banks

Japan and the US conduct rare coordinated intervention to support the yen

Two articles in the reporting window described Japan's second foreign-exchange intervention of 2026 as having been conducted in coordination with the United States, marking the first joint US-Japan intervention since 2011. The supplied coverage said the action was aimed at limiting yen weakness and noted that the move was also seen as easing pressure on other undervalued Asian currencies, including the South Korean won and Chinese renminbi. One article said the yen was consolidating near 159.25 against the US dollar after the intervention, while another said US participation added credibility to Japan's action and could reduce the scale of intervention and associated asset sales that might otherwise add volatility to the US Treasury market.

RBA's Kent says cash-rate increases are having the intended effect

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Chris Kent said on Thursday that the RBA's interest-rate increases were producing the expected effect. The supplied article did not provide further detailed remarks, but it framed the comments as an assessment that tighter monetary policy is working as intended.

Geopolitical Developments

Iran says no progress has been made on an interim peace deal with the US

Reuters-reported coverage in the reporting window said Iran stated there had been no progress on an interim peace deal with the United States. The article said Washington and Tehran remained at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Middle East, indicating that diplomatic efforts had not produced a breakthrough.

Energy & Commodities

IEA cuts 2026 oil supply and demand forecasts amid Middle East shipping disruption

The International Energy Agency said it had reduced its 2026 global oil supply and demand forecasts because of shipping disruptions in the Middle East. According to the supplied article, the IEA projected a 4.3 million barrels-per-day drop in global oil supply this year, making the disruption a major factor in the global energy outlook covered during the reporting period.

Hormuz disruption and US inventory build dominate oil-market coverage

Two supplied articles on the oil market said trading was being shaped by competing forces: persistent supply risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp increase in US crude inventories. One article said US crude inventories rose by 9.1 million barrels, while both articles said concerns over the strategic waterway remained central. The fuller report said US President Donald Trump stated that the situation with Iran was 'going fine' and that US forces were in 'total control' of the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran maintained the waterway would remain closed until its conditions were met, including an end to the US war and blockade, the release of frozen Iranian assets and a regional ceasefire. The same report also said US forces disabled a Panama-flagged cargo ship heading toward an Iranian port after it ignored warnings, and that Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi had travelled to Tehran for mediation talks aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the strait.

Scheduled Events

• US July Consumer Price Index release — Wednesday: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics was due to publish July CPI data, described in the supplied article as a key inflation release.

Closing Summary

The main themes in the reporting window were a rare US-Japan currency intervention, continued Middle East diplomatic deadlock, and energy-market disruption centred on the Strait of Hormuz and revised IEA oil forecasts. Central-bank commentary from Australia and a scheduled US inflation release rounded out the period's key developments.